Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 218.096993 263.496987 319.133710 393.412693 491.661383 6.196366e+02 8.032022e+02
2025-08-10 162.858716 214.388913 285.355196 393.735207 561.836453 8.254519e+02 1.299765e+03
2025-08-17 129.753083 180.852847 257.065087 385.263299 609.759664 1.019529e+03 1.923146e+03
2025-08-24 107.981523 156.984386 234.578850 375.316220 647.435797 1.213885e+03 2.726733e+03
2025-08-31 92.404154 138.841399 215.953944 364.707471 677.575861 1.410043e+03 3.764846e+03
2025-09-07 86.897849 135.526512 220.802295 397.711200 810.242491 1.934858e+03 6.642473e+03
2025-09-14 78.677972 126.017072 212.372043 401.473802 879.001079 2.353213e+03 1.019408e+04
2025-09-21 73.030709 120.032901 209.157816 415.216229 980.421313 2.979807e+03 1.722868e+04
2025-09-28 66.713977 111.830801 199.968436 412.626883 1036.351353 3.514410e+03 2.689804e+04
2025-10-05 64.806483 111.606591 206.887641 451.104701 1241.254579 5.002140e+03 6.422705e+04
2025-10-12 62.395042 110.004804 210.517874 482.557195 1447.427368 6.956985e+03 1.728966e+05
2025-10-19 59.611818 107.240520 211.016199 505.794804 1643.587774 9.424503e+03 5.594587e+05
2025-10-26 56.239846 103.025562 207.922004 519.500852 1823.436391 1.255961e+04 2.757406e+06
2025-11-02 52.665482 97.950002 201.955440 522.946010 1965.797792 1.613852e+04 3.122948e+07
2025-11-09 48.787552 91.758954 192.235622 511.423280 2027.790404 1.925873e+04 6.208188e+09
2025-11-16 45.241431 85.915914 182.512235 497.254675 2068.575922 2.257139e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 42.051132 80.538778 173.205303 482.050931 2095.099599 2.612740e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 41.633372 81.403952 180.436167 529.633290 2578.055554 4.706661e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 39.666366 78.448800 176.847777 535.088249 2785.398828 6.559071e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 38.333160 76.848823 176.788429 555.053080 3143.925991 1.059204e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 36.383760 73.569588 171.444759 551.285694 3303.076093 1.452931e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 36.227166 74.647932 179.017527 607.545350 4153.755396 3.851308e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 35.709297 74.767076 183.773147 653.957125 5051.988412 1.166656e+06 NaN